2024 NRL Predictions – Assessing the chance of all 17 teams

The NRL pre-season is starting to heat up and as the old saying goes, some teams are already starting to train the house down.

Feb 20, 2024, updated Feb 29, 2024
Payne Haas of the Broncos in action during the NRL Round 18 match between the Brisbane Broncos and the Redcliffe Dolphins at The Gabba. (AAP Image/Darren England)

Payne Haas of the Broncos in action during the NRL Round 18 match between the Brisbane Broncos and the Redcliffe Dolphins at The Gabba. (AAP Image/Darren England)

There was a fair bit of player movement in the offseason which should give this year a little shake up. The eight never stays the same and that is likely to be the case once again in 2024.

The NRL experts at have provided their bite-size verdict on how they rate your team’s prospects of a top 8 finish, splitting the teams into three clear tiers for the 2024 NRL season and they have also created a list of betting sites which can be found here.


Top Tier: Fighting for a top 4 finish

Brisbane Broncos

The biggest question of the season will be how will the Broncos respond to ‘choking’ in the finals once again?

It was a big disappointment and if they get off to a bad start after their trip to Vegas there could be a lot of frustration in the club and from their fans.

We don’t expect that to happen because they have too much experience in and around the club for that. They lost a couple of good players in the offseason but picked up Fletcher Baker from the Roosters which fills the hole a little.

The Broncos have a soft run home with eight of nine games in QLD and a late bye, so even if they start sluggish they will be there long into September.

Penrith Panthers 

The Panthers are once again hot favourites to hoist the Provan-Summons Trophy in October.

After their third straight premiership in 2023, the majority of their squad is still intact heading into 2024 and you could easily argue that the team hasn’t got any worse over the past few years.

The difference is that other teams have caught up around them. The Panthers will feature in September and October, no doubt about it. Our expert opinion says they will finish top 4 as well.

Melbourne Storm

The Storm have been very inactive in the offseason and will pretty much start round one with the team they finished 2023 with.

All eyes will be once again on Ryan Papenhuyzen and what he will do in his return, and also where Nick Meaney slots in.

The Storm’s forwards struggled a little bit last season following the departure of some of their big names to the Dolphins.

With another season under their belt now, I do expect improvements in that department and we will see more structure after another Craig Bellamy preseason, maybe his last. Expect the Storm to be in the top 4 mix again.

New Zealand Warriors

The Wahs surprised everyone last season, except themselves. We had them finishing much further down the rankings but underestimated the culture change that coach Andrew Webster had brought about in the squad.

Their defence was also paramount finishing the season as the third best team in opposition points.

With the return of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and the addition of Kurt Capewell, the Warriors will once again ride high in 2024 fighting for a top 4 spot.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Bunnies went the final part of last season with the heads buried in the dirt, losing seven of the last 10 games to miss the finals. Nobody expected that, and we don’t expect that to happen again this season.

Souths had arguably the biggest signing of the offseason with Raider Jack Wighton joining one of his best mates Latrell Mitchell at the club.

Wighton will miss the first couple of matches with suspension, but then the NRL world will have their eyes on what he can bring to Souths and how far they can go.

Middle Tier: Will they make the eight or not?

Parramatta Eels

The Eels suffered the typical grand final hangover and finished last season out of the finals in 10th position.

There is plenty to like about Parra if they stay healthy and out of the judiciary. They have the 1,6,7 and Brendan Hands showed great potential last season in the 9.

Their forwards are as good as any, but they have to stay on the field as the depth further than the top 17 begins to run a little thin. The Eels should be in with a shot at finals footy again as long as they don’t let it slip through their fingers with ill-discipline.

Newcastle Knights

What can we say about the Knights? They are a typical mid-tier team. Could just as easily sneak up or fall down and you wouldn’t be surprised either way.

When their stars are healthy, they have a great team that is capable of both attacking and defending at the elite level. The problem is though their stars can never play a full season.

A couple of English imports and some recruitment of utility depth will at least ensure they won’t take too far of a step back. Clear mid-tier for mine.

Canberra Raiders

Canberra have a tendency to fly under the radar, that is until their coach loses his sh*t in the press conference.

Losing Jack Wighton to the Rabbitohs is a significant hit but they have also cut a bit more dead weight while adding promising young forward and premiership winner Zac Hosking.

The Raiders scraped into the eight last year and had one of the worst point differentials of a top eight team for years. Their defence will need to step up if they are to have any chance at finals in 2024.

Gold Coast Titans

The Titans were one of the most consistently inconsistent teams of 2023. One week they could beat the Storm and another lose to the Bulldogs.

New coach Des Hasler was brought on to give a mature and stable outlook for the club. It is a bit of a gamble considering what has previously happened to teams under Des’ watch. But the Titans are sick of mediocrity and needed a Hail Mary.

Time will tell whether it was a good throw or not. Our prediction is it will take a minute for Des to instil his style of play at this club. Expect a continuation of their inconsistent performances of 2023, cementing them in the middle tier.

Sydney Roosters

Sydney have arguably one of the best rosters in 2024 with depth across most positions. They are though an ageing squad and injuries played their part last year.

One thing the Roosters have though is determination and a solid plan on how their season works. Expect them to be slow out the gates but to peak at the right time to make a run home.

Middle-tier teams that play the Roosters in the last third of the season will need to be on their game. Better chance of top four than bottom four.

North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys underperformed in 2023, or was it that they overperformed in 2022? This season will make that clear.

The expectation is that they should be in the hunt for a finals berth again in 2024, having one of if not the most potent left-side attacks in the game with Scott Drinkwater sniffing around behind Valentine Holmes and Murray Taulagi.

Tom Dearden was exceptional last season and if he has a good start to the new year, he will be hard to keep out of an Origin jersey in my books, especially if the Cows are winning.

Cronulla Sharks 

Plenty of criticism flew towards the Sharks last season, especially Nicho Hynes’ way after winning the Dally M in 2022.

They lost in straight sets in the 2022 finals and also couldn’t get a win in 2023 after finishing the year in a respectable sixth, but going down to the Roosters when it counted.

The Sharks have too much talent not to be in the finals again and we expect Hynes to have grown from his year in the spotlight and get back to just playing footy.

The bigger call is will the Sharks be able to win a finals game once they get there and the answer to that question is no.


The Dolphins started 2023 on pace to make finals but following injuries to key players in the halves they limped home to finish 13th.

Another pre-season under the belt and some fantastic recruitment to bolster their outside defence which at times struggled, will see them once again competing for one of the last two spots in the 8.

The Phins have a magical schedule to start the year having to leave Queensland only once (to Darwin) in the first 11 rounds.

Bottom Tier: Who gets the wooden spoon? 

Canterbury Bulldogs 

There is no team in the NRL right now or in the memory of my tiny little mind that has splashed in the player market more than Canterbury has done over the last three offseasons since Phil Gould got involved.

Gus has brought in Stephen Crichton, Josh Curran, Blake Taafe, Connor Tracey, Jaeman Salmon and maybe 5-10 more guys just this season.

With Josh Addo-Carr, Matt Burton and Reed Mahoney there, the roster is pretty star-studded, but where does everyone fit?

The talent is there but it is going to take time for Cameron Ciraldo to get things functioning, so don’t expect the Bulldogs to jump out of the gates like Black Caviar, but they could finish well and land at the top of the bottom 8.

Manly Sea Eagles

It is now year two for Anthony Siebold at Brookvale and we are still yet to see the best of a once dominant Manly outfit.

The team at times could look like a premiership contender, especially at home where they enjoyed a 6-4 record.

Too much importance though lays on the likes of Tommy Turbo and Daly Cherry-Evans which means when these guys are out, either for Origin or injuries, the team falls apart.

Unfortunately, we have no confidence in Siebold or the Manly defence, especially away from home. They will be fighting to keep from getting the spoon this year.

St George Illawarra Dragons 

Shane Flanagan has been given the task of trying to turn the culture around at St George Illawarra and break the losing trend at the club.

His first step was to keep Ben Hunt at the club until the end of the season and the second step was bringing in his son Kyle to help give the Saints halfback some stability in halves and someone to lighten the organisational load.

The Dragons’ season comes down to the first six weeks if they lose you may as well hand them the spoon, if they win a couple they could be at the top…of the bottom tier of teams.

Wests Tigers

What can we say about the Tigers, other than have they finally hit rock bottom? Some big changes were made within the organisation in the off-season both on and off the field.

It has been 12 years since the team tasted finals footy and despite the new recruits, new coach and new board we can’t see these things having an immediate effect on the production of the team.

Tigers fans will have to wait a few more years both for their team to get better, but also for other teams to get worse. Possibly not wooden spooners this year, but they will need to try their hardest to avoid it.




Don’t chase your losses. Walk away. Gamble responsibly.

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