While all eyes are on the upcoming Federal Budget in May , the Miles Government’s first and only Budget poses the hardest of challenges to produce another arrow or two in the quiver of election sweeteners.

Last year’s budget’s heavy duty carpet bombing approach failed to deliver a decisive turnaround in the long-term Labor Governments fortunes.

Budgets are unique opportunities for governments of all political hue and at all levels to significantly reposition themselves, largely uncontested by opponents .

They can address the big political issues of the moment and change up political narratives. Budgets provide a political spotlight, time and space, for a period.

The 2023-24 Queensland Budget fired the two big cannons – a record-breaking four year state Capital Works Program, aka the Big Build, and as I’ve previously opined a motza in cost-of-living concessions, worth an extra $1.1b.

Despite the sheer size of those two policy spending pillars, the Palaszczuk/Miles government failed to buy a vote and arguably went backwards over the last year. Why would more of the same work in 2024?.

Centre Left governments globally put great stock in big capital spending budgets, especially state or nation-building projects. Witness the US Biden Government’s $300b highway and bridges program, the Albanese Government’s huge capital outlays especially in Energy Security Transition.

Ditto pretty much every State Labor Premier, noting Queensland is the leader amongst its peers on the size of capital spend.

Those outlays have been only made possible due to a goldilocks economy where government revenues are booming. These are rare years when state and national governments can deliver record capital spending, produce surpluses and reduce debt all at the same time.

I can guarantee that you won’t hear much about debt and deficit during the State election campaign later this year.

The political caravan always moves on and the current headline issue is law and order. In this current climate, Fiscal rectitude wont take you far.

Back to the $64 question, where to spend the money in the Miles Government’s last throw at the political dart board .

They will be torn between two political imperatives, appeasing the angry masses’ hip pocket pain (for which they get little or no recognition), and finding some ways to differentiate themselves from the Crisafulli Opposition and minority parties and the independents.

Making things more complicated is the fact the Albanese Government will also also be spending up very big in the May budget, and the poor old punters wont have a clue which level of government is giving them cost-of-living relief. They will simply pocket it and reckon they were owed.

My strong political advice to the Premier wound be to follow John Howard’s (some would argue Bob Hawke’s) approach by funding lots of smaller capital projects ($5- 20m) sandbagging seats. Believable, deliverable and visible .

Better still, I would create a stand-alone hypothecated Queensland
Capital Fund for transformational projects, especially on-shoring manufacturing supply chains creating regional jobs, by using the rivers of gold from the resources boom.

In doing so they snooker the Opposition on royalty levels and deny the far right parties oxygen on working class projects for the regions.

Any multi-billion infrastructure project announcements in the budget such as the ridiculously expensive Eungella Hydro six month out from election date for a 10-year-old government will sink in a flash. Too little too late is the epitaph.

Of course, the LNP can match all, or most of Labor’s spending commitments.

They are the stalkers and can cherry pick the Governments attractive policies and projects to suit the political mood, copying Labor when it suits and carving out their own identity,