The explosive combination of La Niña conditions and warm ocean temperatures around northern Australia had contributed to the increased risk, the Bureau has told the ABC.

“Certainly this season is probably more favourable than any season we’ve seen for some time,” said Senior climatologist Greg Browning.

A key element, Browning said, was that the surface temperature of the Coral Sea during December was the second hottest since records began in 1900.

Flooding rains in the state’s north and north-west were the product of a tropical low pressure system, many of which had the capacity to develop into cyclones when the move offshore. The system affecting Queensland earlier this week is now several hundred kilometres off the Cairns coast.

The weather bureau said it was expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Saturday morning, shortly before moving out of the region.

Browning said that system would not directly impact the Queensland coast.

The BOM’s latest cyclone outlook, released in October, predicted an above-average number of tropical cyclones this season.

Since records began in 1970, Australia has seen an average of 11 cyclones a year, with four typically crossing the coast.

“There has actually been quite a significant trend in a reduction of tropical cyclone activity across the Australian region,” Mr Browning told the ABC.

“It’s actually been relatively unusual since about 2000 that we’ve seen more than 11 tropical cyclones in a season.