Nine lives: Numbers show how vaccines are preventing an Omicron calamity

People who are unvaccinated are nine times more likely to end up in hospital than those who are triple vaccinated if they contract COVID-19, Queensland’s health boss has revealed.

Jan 12, 2022, updated Jan 12, 2022
Queensland's Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard. (Photo: AAP).

Queensland's Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard. (Photo: AAP).

This is the message on Wednesday from Queensland’s chief health officer, Dr John Gerrard.

Dr Gerrard’s message, based on modelling, comes as Queensland announced 22,069 new cases.

The State now has 30 people in intensive care with CVODI-19, eight of whom are on ventilators. A total of 525 people are in hospital with the virus.

The number of people in ICU is up from 27 on Tuesday while the total number in hospital rose from 502.

“We now have enough data, from around 500 patients, to see some real trends in who is ending up in Queensland hospitals and the importance of boostered vaccination is very clear,” Gerrard said.

“If you are unvaccinated you are nine times more likely to end up in hospital than if you have received boostered vaccination, that is three doses of vaccination.

Health Minister Yvette D’ath said that only two local government areas of the State have reported no positive cases since December 13. Currently 88.02 per cent of Queenslanders are double dosed.

Gerrard’s message came as the World Health Organisation predicted that up to half of the people in Europe may be infected by Omicron in coming weeks – and warned that it was too early to treat the “less lethal” variant as if it were a flu.

The continent registered more than seven million newly-reported cases in the first week of 2022, more than doubling over a two-week period, WHO’s Europe director Hans Kluge told a news briefing.

“At this rate, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts that more than 50 per cent of the population in the region will be infected with Omicron in the next 6-8 weeks,” Kluge said, referring to a research centre at the University of Washington in the US.

Fifty out of 53 countries in Europe and central Asia have logged cases of the more infectious variant, Kluge said.

“Today, the Omicron variant represents a new west to east tidal wave sweeping across the region, on top of the Delta surge that all countries were managing until late 2021,” Kluge said.

He added: “It is quickly becoming the dominant virus in western Europe and is now spreading in the Balkans.”

Evidence, however, is emerging that Omicron is affecting the upper respiratory tract more than the lungs, causing milder symptoms than previous variants.

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But the WHO has cautioned more studies are still needed to prove this.

On Monday, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said it may be time to change how it tracks Covid-19’s evolution to instead use a method similar to flu because its lethality has fallen.

That would imply treating the virus as an endemic illness, rather than a pandemic, without recording every case and without testing all people presenting symptoms.

But that is “a way off,” WHO’s senior emergency officer for Europe Catherine Smallwood said at the briefing, adding that endemicity requires a stable and predictable transmission.

“We still have a huge amount of uncertainty and a virus that is evolving quite quickly, imposing new challenges. We are certainly not at the point where we are able to call it endemic,” Smallwood said.

“It may become endemic in due course but pinning that down to 2022 is a little bit difficult at this stage.”

On reports of a so-called Deltacron variant, Smallwood said: “(There have been) reports of a recombination between Delta and Omicron variants, and indeed we are in touch with Cyprus, who have been providing information about that.”

“And it does at this stage look like it could be the result of laboratory contamination rather than a new variant or new recombination between two variants,” she said.

-with reporting from PA

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