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Australia smashes August job predictions as rates fail to bite

Higher interest rates are yet to make a serious dent in Australia’s jobs market, which recorded a larger-than-expected surge in employment last month.

Sep 14, 2023, updated Sep 14, 2023
Construction workers are seen working at the Roma Street Station on the Cross River Rail project in Brisbane, Saturday, February 12, 2022.   (AAP Image/Darren England)

Construction workers are seen working at the Roma Street Station on the Cross River Rail project in Brisbane, Saturday, February 12, 2022. (AAP Image/Darren England)

Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that about 65,000 people found work in August, well above the 25,000 lift expected by economists.

The jobless rate held steady at 3.7 per cent for the second consecutive month, marking the 18th month in a row of an unemployment rate below four per cent.

The participation rate, which measures the percentage of Australians either in a job or looking for one, ticked up to 67 per cent.

ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said together with the 64.5 per cent employment to population ratio, the record participation rate reflected a still-tight jobs market.

He also said the 65,000 increase in employment in the month came after a small drop in July, which coincided with the school holiday period.

“Looking over the past two months, the average employment growth was around 32,000 people per month, which is similar to the average growth over the past year,” he said.

Monthly hours were down 0.5 per cent in August, but continue to grow faster than the increase in employment.

Mr Jarvis said this pointed to a large amount of work that needed doing and people continuing to work more hours in response.

BDO economics partner Anders Magnusson said increasing hours worked per employee and high rates of multiple job holdings cast a shadow over the solid labour force numbers.

“With costs rising more quickly than wages, Australians are working more jobs and longer hours to make ends meet,” he said.

But Treasurer Jim Chalmers said more Australians were in work than ever before, and the participation rate was at a record high.

“This is a tremendous result and a testament to the resilience of the Australian economy and the Australian people,” Dr Chalmers said.

But he warned the labour market would start to slow as high interest rates, high but moderating inflation and continuing global uncertainty – particularly the slowdown in China – weighed on the economy.

Oxford Economics Australia head of macroeconomic forecasting Sean Langcake said the data set neither confirmed nor denied whether the labour market was starting to respond to monetary tightening.

“Firms are still adding to headcount, and with job vacancies still elevated, employment growth will likely hold steady in the coming months,” Mr Langcake said.

He said the data would not move the needle for the RBA, which has kept the interest rates on hold for three months in a row.

The group is not expecting more interest rate hikes in the current cycle.

The central bank has been watching for too much strength in the jobs market that could keep consumers spending and exert upward pressure on wages.

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