Broker claims it’s time to switch channels on News Corp

Stockbroker Wilsons Advisory has told investors to switch from News Corp to Nine Entertainment to access higher quality earnings that were less likely to be impacted by cyclical swings.

Sep 15, 2022, updated Sep 15, 2022
Wilsons said it preferred Nine Entertainment to News

Wilsons said it preferred Nine Entertainment to News

In a report titled Time to Switch Channels, Wilsons analyst Rob Crookston said that Nine’s real estate site Domain was better value than News’s cash driver

He said Nine was preferable because its fundamental metrics were favourable to News, it had a higher quality earnings base, was less cyclical and more resilient than the market believed and shareholders were likely to get better returns.

The broker said Nine had grown its digital assets at a fast pace in recent years and this was set to continue.

“Nine also has less exposure to legacy assets in structural decline, like book publishing and cable TV (Foxtel),” Wilsons told investors.

“NEC’s (Nine) subscription business was 32 per cent of revenue in 2022, up from 20 per cent. Subscription revenue has grown 28 per cent year-on-year and we think this growth will continue, offsetting the loss in ad spend in a more turbulent 2023.

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“We believe digital and recurring subscription-based revenues are stickier and less cyclical than traditional print and TV advertising revenue, therefore underpinning a higher degree of earnings visibility.”

The broker said the market was forecasting flat earnings growth for both Nine and News over the next few years, but it believed the market was underestimating the speed and impact of the shift to digital.

It said Domain had a stronger earnings growth profile than REA ( Nine had also created both Domain and its streaming service, Stan whereas News had to buy REA at a potential premium.


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