When Christopher Columbus set off to find the “new world” in 1492, he convinced a reluctant crew (many of whom apparently still believed they could fall off a flat earth or could not return across the Atlantic) to join him based on revolutionary new navigation equipment.

It was not until Columbus was well out to sea that he realised the equipment worked well on stable ground but was pretty much useless on a moving ship. He kept that piece of news to himself.

For businesses trying to navigate the current unchartered pandemic waters, it looks a bit the same. Things are rough and, in those circumstances, the forecasting equipment can be unreliable.

The Australian Industry Group, a peak national employer group representing tens of thousands of members nationally, has been monitoring business experiences since COVID-19 crashed the economic party in 2020.

A collation of feedback from around 1500 business responses shows a patchy business environment with big winners and big losers. It also shows that, as the crisis drags on, optimism in many sectors is harder to maintain and prolonged lockdowns in some states have diminished confidence.

In the first half of 2021 when we had started to see a recovery, 60% of businesses reported positive trading conditions and 37% negative. By August this year, following increased activity restrictions, this had flipped to 64% negative and 31% positive.

There are also major differences in sectors. Many manufacturers and businesses supplying the mining industry, for example, have remained largely buoyant (but still challenged by supply chain issues).

Service industries have been hit much harder and construction has lately been caught up in lockdown mayhem as well as facing real challenges with material supplies.

The big flip from positive to negative sentiment over the course of 2021 has been driven largely by supply disruption (29% of businesses), activity restrictions (29%) and reduced customer demand (10% but well below the peak of 68% during pandemic pandemonium in April last year). Both the positive and negative factors impacting business have evolved over the course of the pandemic.

Problems with supply chains are continuing on a variety of fronts. Many overseas factories are still closed due to lockdowns. This has been coupled with shortages of empty containers, global scarcities of some component parts (particularly electronics) and higher freight costs. Some materials that might have arrived from China in 10 days in the past are now taking 5-6 weeks.

On the upside, some companies who produce inputs domestically are picking up business from competitors whose overseas supply chains are buckled. Some are reporting early signs of recovery in supply chains from key markets.

Businesses in lockdown in July and August this year widely reported concerns about maintaining customer contact and the lack of face-to-face meetings.

The bottom line of all this is a business community divided on the outlook. Nearly 30% of businesses in August were pausing decisions pending greater certainty.

In the first half of the year, half of businesses planned to increase staff hours or numbers. Following lockdowns, this has fallen to 20%. Even more worrying, very few businesses were looking to reduce staff numbers in the first half of the year compared with 14% in August.

By August much of the positive sentiment out of the blocks in 2021 had evolved to a more neutral “wait and see” or “keep the ship steady” approach.

Due to uncertainty, the conditions require more forward planning than in the past, greater flexibility and the need to find customers in sectors that are holding up.

In contrast, underlying most of the current business sentiment is a sense that we are dealing with short-term issues that will pass.

In fact, the overwhelming experience in Australia and elsewhere is that the bounce backs happen relatively quickly.

Nationally output and employment had both exceeded pre-pandemic levels by the end of March this year and the economy grew further in the June quarter.

There are also signs of recovery from the COVID-19 Delta outbreak and the restrictions that following, with signs of increased work hours in September in Queensland and New South Wales.

However, it remains volatile out there, and the business community is craving certainty and consistency as they navigate unpredictable seas.

Shane Rodgers is the Brisbane-based national Chief Operating Officer of peak employer body, The Australian Industry Group.