COVID aside, Australia may be about to enter a golden age

Australians were about to experience one of the best economic periods of their lifetime on the back of an extraordinary trade boom, according to Morgans economist Michael Knox.

Sep 13, 2021, updated Sep 13, 2021
Iron ore prices would stabilise helping Australian into export boom

Iron ore prices would stabilise helping Australian into export boom

He said the boom, driven by the stimulus from US Budget deficits, was like the 1950s when Australia had a boom in wool, wheat and mining.

“That’s the kind of behaviour we are entering,’’ Knox said.

“We get three years of very strong growth in the Australian economy and low unemployment.

“One economist I was presenting to said we might get unemployment with a 3 in front, which is something we have not had since the 1960s. If you have low unemployment you have very high growth in real wages.

“The biggest agricultural export Australia has is actually wheat. World wheat stocks have fallen dramatically and are equal to the lowest stocks and consumption ratio this century.

“The equilibrium price now of wheat is $8.74 a bushel which is the highest price ever in the history of the model.

“And even though the wheat export price has rallied it is 70 cents below the model estimates in the last resources boom the wheat price overshot that model by a considerable factor.

“Spot model of iron ore prices and interestingly despite all the media of the collapse of the iron ore price, the modelling shows it’s about $US20 below fair value right now so we think it will stabilise around this area for the next couple of years.

“Copper stocks are near the lowest level of this century and that generates high equilibrium prices and even though the prices are high it is not high at any statistical level.

“And if you go through other metals like nickel, lead and zinc they are all around fair value. There has been a generalised increase in demand.’’

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“In the outlook I have got, up until the shutdowns in Sydney and Melbourne I was showing growth rates this year of 5.3 per cent this year dropping to 4 and a bit next year.

“As a result of the shutdowns we have had so far, I have cut the growth rate to 4.8 per cent this year rising to 5 per cent next year but one economist was saying growth may fall to 3 per cent this year but go up to 6 per cent next year.

“Imagine an Australian economy after two years of recovery from this pandemic and then you hit 6 per cent growth next year on top of everything else … on top of all of the property boom, employment boom, we hit 6 per cent. 

“The benefit of what that does is the improvement of living standards and the improving of housing demand.

“We are looking at one of the better periods in many of our lifetimes and I hope we all realise it will eventually come to an end, probably in five years’ time when all the US budget stimulus will die and the economy will slow down to normal levels.’’




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