The snapshot of how farmers in Queensland are feeling is contained in the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey, showing concerns about rising input costs and a heightened risk of foot and mouth disease (FMD) driving the outlook into negative territory for the first time since 2020.

The latest quarterly survey, completed last month, found 19 per cent of the state’s producers were expecting agribusiness conditions to improve in the coming 12 months., down from the 28 per cent who held that view last quarter.

Just under half of those surveyed (44 per cent) were anticipating the current positive conditions would continue.

A total of 31 per cent were expecting business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead, an increase on 18 per cent last quarter.

Despite the negative downturn business investment intentions among the state’s producers continue to be at solid levels, with 85 per cent looking to increase or maintain current spending on their farm businesses in the coming 12 months, a drop of 8 per cent last quarter.

In addition to rising fuel and energy costs and increased disease threats, 28 per cent of farmers are worried about declining commodity prices.

The dip in farmer sentiment may also be suppressing the appetite for rural property purchasing, with those farmers intending to buy more land to increase production halving to just 12 per cent of respondents.

While acknowledging activity in the Queensland agricultural property market had slowed down in recent months, Rabobank’s Trent McIndoe said property prices were holding.

“Blue-chip properties are continuing to attract a lot of interest if they come to market,” he said.

McIndoe said seasonal conditions were also sustaining confidence levels, particularly among cotton growers who remain the most optimistic.

He said seasonal conditions remained mixed across much of the state – with northern areas being dry, which is “typical for this time of year” – while some areas of the Darling Downs are dealing with water-logged paddocks due to an extremely wet year.

“The prospect of a third La Nina weather system affecting Australia this summer presents a mixed bag for the Queensland ag sector – with cattle producers excitedly looking forward to receiving more rain – while cotton, grain and sugar producers are very aware of the challenges another extremely wet summer may bring,” he said.

“The latest Queensland cotton crop delivered extraordinary yields, some of the best in the country, and this factor – combined with good seasonal conditions and a strong cotton market – is driving the sector confidence levels.”