Imagine if there was a fortnight of what everyone proclaimed as a political crisis and disaster which ended in nothing of immediate substance occurring. This might be where we are in Queensland right now.

On Friday, August 25 things looked so dire for the Queensland Labor Government generally and its head, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Two days of panicked reaction to community unrest about crime and a collapse in public order left the government looking like a whirling dervish.

All sides were unhappy and the blame game inside the government was even worse than that being played out in public.

What came next is now a dark, indelible chapter in contemporary politics. Regardless of who knew what and when, Palaszczuk’s holiday trip to southern Italy with her partner Reza Adib was a bad look from start to finish. It was bad timing, dumb judgment and blind ignorance of reality.

That Palaszczuk did it was bad enough. That no one close to her counseled a second thought was a sackable offence.
To understand just how bad, do a simple comparison of two photos. Look at the happy snap of Palaszczuk and Abib at the Bluesfest in Byron Bay at Easter and put it next to the caught-in-the-headlights fear photo of the pair at the San Carlo Opera in Naples.

Absolutely chalk and cheese.

As political threads these things are not nothing but they are often less than meets the eyes. Two groups which thrive on gossip are journalists and politicians and they spend half their waking hours gossiping to each other.

They love the horse race, they live and breathe what’s known as the game schema – the internal mechanics of playing the game – and score each and every public and private act.

Yes, it is that self obsessed and narcissistic. Your taxes at work, as they say.

The problem for the whispering class is their sound and fury – as quiet as it is – might really signify nothing or not very much.
A simple fact is being overlooked, ignored or wilfully brushed aside. Palaszczuk’s political future is a matter for herself, first and foremost.

She is a three times elected Labor leader who stands as the most successful female politician in Australian history – twice re-elected as an incumbent.

She has almost all of the 52 MPs in her debt as a result of this success. When she was first elected Premier in 2015 she took her party’s numbers from just seven to 44 – a number increased to 48 in 2017 and then four more at the 2020 contest.

No wonder a soaring majority of these MPs can’t find anyone who has any trouble with a premier they insist is still “loved” by the public.

Delusional? Maybe? People with memories better than honey bees recall similar sentiment by Caucus members in 2012 prior to the Campbell Newman landslide and its coincidental Labor evisceration.

There’s no actual test of these assumptions and tea leaf readings by click-bait hungry journalists and ambitious politicians. Until Palaszczuk does something or, if she does nothing, there is an election, we won’t know.

One thing is almost beyond doubt. There is not going to be a challenge to her leadership – for one simple reason.
There is no agreed successor and no bloodless path to a succession.

Factional politics in Queensland Labor – which has bedeviled the state ALP for most of its existence – makes any clean move from Palaszczuk to Steven Miles or anyone else impossible.

It’s too head bangingly stupid to explain in detail but events inside a party that can’t let go of something that happened decades ago are never sane or attractive.

While Labor was in opposition at a state and federal level in Queensland, Anthony Albanese expressed wonder to people when he was told the single most important thing he had to know about shadow ministers he was meeting was which union to which they owed their power,

If Palaszczuk is going to leave the job she loves she had better make a plan, take people into her confidence and have a conversation with the public soon – in that order.

The most remarkable thing about Palaszczuk’s fall from her heights of personal popularity, is that she has let her greatest strength – her relatability – evaporate. This is something most politicians dream of – the Queensland premier had it in buckets but has squandered it.

She will be back from Italy by next weekend in time to prepare for the Parliamentary sitting beginning on September 12 and, presuming she is not going to walk away from being premier, Palaszczuk will have to speak to the media and the public.

You can bet there will be three questions at the top of what will be a difficult and shouty encounter: Why did you leave for Europe in apparent secrecy after a week of parliamentary disaster? What is the health issue you referred to when confronted by the media in Naples and how does that figure in your future? What is your future – will you lead Labor to the 2024 election?

There are other questions but these stand out. Palaszczuk will need considered, clear and coherent answers which will not raise further questions. She will have to handle the questions calmly and respectfully.

A good way to prepare might be to go back to Julia Gillard’s November, 2012 “take all questions” media conference in Parliament House, Canberra, answering claims and allegations about a mysterious Victorian union scandal.

Her office needs to make sure she is prepared. They also shouldn’t play games with the media – or the public. When she is returning should be made public as soon as possible so there are minimal cat and mouse games.

Advance notice could also pave the way for a relatively dignified re-entry to daily Queensland politics and government.
The coming few weeks will be as fascinating and as head spinning as any of recent times in the modern political era in this state but remember a few basic unavoidable truths.

The next election is 14 months away, allowing plenty of time for as many events as such a time frame can accommodate. Yes, a week is a long time in politics – 60 weeks will catch and kill plenty of brave or foolhardy politicians.

Palaszczuk might be chasing down the “it’s time” demon that haunts every politician after a few wins but, as American baseball legend Yogi Berra used to say, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.