It goes without saying that straddling both sides of a barbed-wire fence requires a delicate touch, particularly when it comes to fickle voters.

Getting the policy and narrative right on the size of the Queensland Public Sector is the game in question – keeping in mind that these things cut deeper in the regions.

It’s axiomatic that Labor and Unions will run a very tough campaign on asset sales , jobs and services at next year’s October state election.

It’s been a Labor staple since spectacularly and unexpectedly tipping out Campbell Newman’s one-term administration. But how will it play out this time around? Has it been milked to death, or are there still legs in the hoary old chestnut?

But first, back to the ranch, as important as the public service is in Brisbane, it’s critical in the regions.

The provincial cities are relatively more dependent on state largesse, not just capital spending. In relative terms the private sector is smaller in provincial cities. Teachers, nurses, policeman, electricity workers, and port employees loom large in the local labour market .

The current strong state of the Queensland economy works in Labor’s favour, but conversely might help the conservatives, because it makes shifting your votes easier. Unemployment is simply not an issue .

On the one hand the LNP has to be clear, one way or another, on asset sales. Either propose it, or can it, weasel words won’t suffice.

Equally both sides of the contest need to outline a policy for both improving service delivery and right-sizing the public sector. They have to avoid a debate about total public service numbers and focus on waste and front-line services and meeting community expectations on the likes of hospital ramping times and elective surgeries, to name but a few red button issues.

Using the Borbidge/ Sheldon formula strategy would be a good start .

On the flip side of the coin, Labor has to freshen up its pitch on asset sales and job losses in the public sector, especially in the regions. But will the siren song work for a fourth time? Will it trump their service delivery failures?

Rest assured with wall-to-wall labor state governments on the Australian mainland, and a resurgent union movement, their operatives will be thick on the ground before and during the Queensland election.

The two underlying currents are rapid population growth, and new technology such as generative AI which could out carve huge numbers of public servants within four to five years.

Both sides will need to get their pitches right on meeting growth service challenges, and fears as to what generative AI will do to workforce numbers.

By the time of the next state election there will be massive hype in the community about the wonders and threats posed by generative AI , well past the current Chat GPT phase.

Make no mistake , this is not another computer fad. It’s truly game changing. Just as robots have changed the face of large scale manufacturing and distribution, generative AI will cut swathes through the hitherto untouchable “ knowledge worker” class .

We are talking technical and professional jobs, as well as administrative ones – they will be in the firing line. Whichever party best weaponises the hopes fears around generative AI (read job security)  or a leaner, more cost effective public sector will be on the way to possessing the keys to the Tower of Power in 1 William Street.

Game on . .