The economy might be taking a turn for the worst, but job numbers still on up and up
The jobs market has been powering along strongly even as economic conditions sour.
Construction workers are seen in the Central Business District in Melbourne, Friday, September 15, 2023. (AAP Image/Diego Fedele) NO ARCHIVING
Yet signs of weakness have been creeping in and the September labour force, due for release on Thursday, will be watched for further confirmation of the trend.
The jobless rate has been gradually inching higher, holding at 3.7 per cent in July and August after reaching a low of 3.4 per cent across a couple of months last year.
Despite moving higher, unemployment is still extremely low compared to historical norms and demand for workers remains high.
In September, the jobless rate is tipped to tick higher again.
CommSec economist Craig James said unemployment will likely tick up to 3.8 per cent in September, with the 25,000 jobs the bank expects to see added to the economy not enough to keep the jobless rate stable.
AMP economist Shane Oliver is also expecting unemployment to shift higher to 3.8 per cent and a more modest 5000 gain in employment.
The strength of the jobs market has surprised many economists who expected to see a faster loosening in the labour market as interest rates increased.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has been monitoring movements in the labour market carefully for indications that its interest rate hikes are working to slow the economy, with some weakening in the jobs market consistent with the board’s strategy for taming inflation.
