In a keynote speech to the Australian Institute of Criminology’s annual conference on Monday, federal MP Andrew Leigh will attribute the rise to tougher bail laws and longer sentences.

As of this year, the national incarceration rate is 202 prisoners per 100,000 adults, compared to just 96 per 100,000 in 1985.

The more than doubling of the incarceration rate comes despite crimes such as murder, car theft and robbery being in decline.

“The issue has instead been with how we have chosen to handle complex social challenges,” Dr Leigh will say in the speech.

“Stricter policing, tougher sentencing and more stringent bail laws appear to be the main drivers behind Australia’s growing prison population.”

Incarceration rates have more than doubled among Australia’s Indigenous population.

The rate has risen from one per cent of Indigenous Australians in 1990 to 2.3 per cent in 2022.

The figure is even higher in states such as WA, where 3.5 per cent of Indigenous adults are behind bars.

“Based on the available data, incarceration rates for Indigenous Australians are higher than for African-Americans in the United States,” Dr Leigh will say.

“First Nations children are also jailed at 20 times the rate of non-First Nations children and were more likely to be jailed without being sentenced.”

Figures estimate that for every prisoner, there are an average of 1.8 children with an incarcerated parent.

In the speech, Dr Leigh will say a rise in incarceration did not lead to falling crime rates, with other factors being behind the trend.

“The factors that have driven the fall in crime include better community policing, immigration, rising incomes, the removal of lead from petrol and the mandatory installation of electronic immobilisers on new vehicles,” he will say.

“This suggests that it should be possible to have an Australia with less crime and less incarceration.”