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Dangerous liaison: La Nina may be hooking up with an IOD to create more rain

Weather forecasters are tipping not only a wet spring but a greater potential for a rare third consecutive La Nina later this year.

Jul 15, 2022, updated Jul 15, 2022
A third La Nina was increasingly possible (Photo: ABC - Brett Clarke).

A third La Nina was increasingly possible (Photo: ABC - Brett Clarke).

Adding to that is the prospect of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, which is the west coast version of the La Nina, and can effect the east coast by enhancing the flow of moist air across Australia, increasing the potential for rainfall.

Australia experienced its impact in 2021 when we had the wettest November on record and in 2016 when it caused the wettest September on record.

Weatherzone said a negative IOD was usually declared when its index remained below -0.4 for at least eight weeks and that was looking increasingly likely.

The last time the two weather patterns teamed up was in 1974, which delivered a record year for rain which included disastrous flooding in Brisbane after three weeks of almost continuous rain.

“Most forecast models suggest the IOD will remain in a negative state during the rest of the southern hemisphere’s winter and into spring, most likely gaining more strength in the coming weeks,” Weatherzone said.

“It is only a matter of time before the Bureau of Meteorology declares a negative IOD officially underway.”

Your Weather Channel said a third consecutive La Nina was increasingly possible as trade winds continued at an above average rate and the sub surface cooled.

The likelihood of wet spring for the east coast was now at 80 per cent.

America’s national weather service said there was a 66 per cent chance of La Nina hitting between November and January.

The Bureau of Meteorology will announce its latest climate driver update on Tuesday.

 

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