Tapping into trillions: Novonix predicts next upswing for its roller-coaster ride
Novonix’s wild ride has seen its stock drop more than 30 per cent and rebound by 20 per cent in the space of a week, but that could be just a taste of what’s ahead of the company and its shareholders, predicting demand for its products was going to be insatiable.
Novonix chief executive Chris Burns
Managing director Chris Burns told investors yesterday that it was looking to tap into the billions of dollars in grants that will start to be issued next year by the US Government as a part of its $US1.2 trillion infrastructure Bill.
“So out of that infrastructure funding, $US6 billion is for battery processing materials and $US3 billion of it is directly for scale-up of manufacturing of these materials and recycling,’’ Burns said.
“There is a significant amount of capital and they are going to start looking at how to distribute it in May next year and they will be looking for partners that have qualified technology, a path to market, customers and relationships.
“Phillips66 (Novonix’s biggest shareholder) will play a role in positioning us for a role for that type of funding support.
“They have programs for debt for expansion and now the infrastructure law provides grant-based opportunities.’’
Burns said the demand for its products, which are used in the electric vehicle batteries, was going to be “insatiable’’ over the next few years, driven by the growing demand for battery cycle life, or the number of times a battery can be recharged.
Pushing the demand further would be the potential of using vehicle batteries to power homes or feed into the grid as well as autonomous vehicles and ESG, according to Burns.
And while the company was stretching itself to meet demand in the US market Burns said Europe was also on its roadmap, but not until it fixes supply issues in the US.
“As we reach scale and have material at significant volume in the market in North America it will be a natural progression to move to Europe,’’ he said.
Burns said the trend towards vehicle-to-grid energy transfer was significant. Both Ford and VW had committed to the technology.
“I think there is so much focus on electrification of vehicles, but I think you will see in the next few years a huge amount of focus on energy storage,’’ Burns said.
“Cleaning the transportation sector is critical, but the best way to reduce the carbon impact is to move to a more sustainable grid structure with renewable power generation and that will increase the demand for storage.
“It’s crazy to think about a future where vehicles are not playing a role in energy storage for the grid. As it stands, I have a Tesla in my driveway with a 100-kilowatt hours battery pack, but I would have to spend $10,000 to put a Powerwall battery in my house for backup. Why would I do that if I access the battery in my vehicle?
“This is a trend that will increase the cycle count demand on vehicles significantly if they are used as energy storage assets for the grid.’’
The company recently opened a synthetic graphite plant in the US city of Chattanooga and Burns said demand for the product, used in battery anodes, was not going to be filled by domestic suppliers.
“When you start looking at the scale of batteries by 2030 there is going to be 4.5 to 5 terawatt hours of battery production by 2030.
“By 2025 the North American supply chain is going to need 600,000 tonnes of graphite and 1 million tonnes of cathode metals like manganese and cobalt.
“By 2030 those numbers will grow and the existing supply chain for these materials is essentially zero.’’
Novonix is planning the production of synthetic graphite to reach 10,000 tonnes by 2023 and then 40,000 tonnes by 2025 and 150,000 by 2030, but 2025 was the year most of those factories have come on line.
“While 40,000 tonnes will be an amazing achievement for the business it’s a drop in the bucket in the domestic supply chain let alone the global supply chain,” he said.
Novonix shares were down 27 cents this morning to $9.38.