Albo’s double dissolution talk is ’empty threat’ and won’t help government
Pulling the plug on parliament and sending voters to the polls early is unlikely to benefit the federal government, experts say.
Voting queues are seen in the electorate of Wentworth at North Bondi Primary School on Election Day in Sydney, Saturday, 18 May, 2019. Approximately 16.5 million Australians will vote in what is tipped to be a tight election contest between Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Australian Opposition leader Bill Shorten. (AAP Image/Bianca De Marchi) NO ARCHIVING
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a double dissolution election in his attempts to break a political stalemate over his party’s key housing policies.
But electoral analyst Ben Raue says he can’t see any point in pulling the trigger.
The only way it would help the federal government would be if voters who preferenced the Greens at the 2022 election switched back to Labor.
But polling suggests the opposite will happen.
“I don’t understand the logic of it, which makes me think it’s just an empty threat,” Mr Raue told AAP.
“Labor is frustrated because they would like to be able to govern and the Greens have a different agenda.
“This is just the sort of thing that is born out of frustration.”
A double dissolution trigger occurs when there is a deadlock between the Senate and the House of Representatives on a proposed law, prompting the governor-general to dissolve both chambers, paving the way for an election.
If the Senate fails to pass a law at least three months after it previously voted the same law down, then the double dissolution can be invoked.
However, a double dissolution cannot happen within six months of the latest possible date for a lower house election, and Monash University constitutional law professor Luke Beck said this meant the prime minister could set the process in motion any time until the end of January.
Unlike a regular federal election – where half of the Senate seats are up for grabs – a double dissolution puts all senators in the running.
“The political risk is that (Mr Albanese) ends up with a worse crossbench,” Prof Beck told AAP.
“Whether he pulls the double dissolution trigger will come down to the political calculus.
“It’s probably more for political theatre than anything else.”
The spat was catalysed by an impasse on two key government housing reforms, Help to Buy, which reduces deposit requirements for first-home buyers through a government loan guarantee, and Build to Rent, which offers tax concessions and incentives for developers to add rental stock.
The Greens have called on the government to amend its bills by including a cap on rent increases, further investing in public housing and phasing-out tax handouts for property developers.
But Mr Albanese maintains his reforms do not need amendments, and Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather said Labor had refused to provide any wiggle room in its negotiations.