Oh Dear – One Nation shoots itself in the head, foot and chest.

After months of me proclaiming this was One Nation’s time at the upcoming State Election, based on council election results, they have completely dropped the ball by dis-endorsing their only sitting member, and failing to select candidates in key winnable seats in the north.

As it turns out their sole goal appears to be getting James Ashby elected in Keppel, which they well might do.

It proves that the souffle only rises once in politics, despite the magic ingredients being available . Moreover, that administratively One Nation are riven by personality clashes and are basically hopeless.

The party is Pauline Hanson and James Ashby full stop. This current scenario has played out multiple times over the past 20 years – from Queensland to Tasmania. Members elected, then very public subsequent bust ups.

Steven Andrew, the current member for Mirani, is the cause célèbre this time.

He was elected in 2020 as a One Nation Candidate. His expulsion was allegedly based on not coming up with a single private members bill during the current term of state government.

If the truth be told , it was his dalliance with the Katter Party that bought him unstuck.

He was very grumpy with the complete lack of support from One Nation and was progressively wooed by Rob Katter.

Turning to their pre-selection process, 50 days out from polling day they do not have candidates in key seats of Barron River, Thuringowa and Mundingburra.

They have previously held Barron River and Thuringowa. As it currently stands they only have 35 preselected candidates in the 93 seats in the Queensland Parliament. A huge, once-in-30-year missed opportunity .

I still firmly believe that it’s not automatic that voters north of Mackay will transfer their votes from Labor to the LNP, for a whole range of reasons I’ve previously expounded on. It’s one of those times when southerners (read Brisbane) are on the nose.

The current Bruce Highway media campaign, and the shocking fertiliser explosion at Bororen will only fan the angst.

Put succinctly, the north’s counter strike is on.

I won’t at all be surprised if the Katter seat count gets to five or six when the dust settles on the 26 October poll . Add a few more inner Brisbane seats to the Greens and you have a cross bench of 10-12 .

That becomes interesting if Labor retains 30 or more seats (ie lose 20 or less seats).

The polls are sparse in the regions and voters in those parts are notorious for not showing their hand. So any chance of decisively knowing where the winds blowing is slim.

I still suspect the LNP will have a working majority in the new parliament , but regional Queensland voters are ornery and then some.

Meanwhile One Nation will be left to lament , what might have been.