David Crisafulli has vowed to maintain stability in the public service if he’s elected but only the naive would think this would see anywhere near the current group of public service heads line up at next year’s budget estimates hearings.

Some will choose to go, some will have the choice made for them and some will stay on the basis that they may be able to work with the policy leanings of an LNP Government which is all but certain by November.

The director-general of Premiers and Cabinet, Mike Kaiser, a former chief of staff to two Labor premiers, party secretary and Labor MP, will not make it through a week of a changed government. And nor, whatever his talents, would he expect to.

Any reading of the estimates hearings of the past fortnight would suggest a few other senior public servants and likely ministers who would not welcome time in each other’s company if the government changes. The director-general of Health, Michael Walsh, is high among them as is the director-general of Energy and Climate, Paul Martyn.

The likelihood is that Crisafulli – mindful of the chaos launched by Campbell Newman when he was last in government would move steadily on other changes. But the reality is that real change in how the state is governed needs changed leadership at the big-budget agencies (health and education), the high-impact agencies (anything to do with crime, finance and transport) and a renewed focus on cohesive policy development.

Add to that a desire to take a different but unexplained approach to energy transformation and to figure what to do about Olympic and Paralympic venues and you can see a lot of deckchairs shifted or vacated over the first half of next year.

Crisafulli has been careful to not outline a comprehensive agenda which can be used to erode his winning position just months out from an election. He’s also been careful to contain hubris within his ranks.

But heck, it’s still a small town. And people talk. Here’s some of what they are saying about who might be in sight to fill the gaps.

Most mentioned is David Edwards, a former director-general of state development in the Newman government, former COS to LNP leaders and now a consultant. Edwards led the Palaszczuk Government negotiations to build Queen’s Wharf which will open soon and he happens to be son of Sir Llew Edwards, the former Liberal leader who then ran Expo 88.

LNP scouts have their eyes out for others who have or they believe can work with them. Crisafulli is focussed on winning the election but has delegated some of this work to his chief of staff Richard Ferrett and his deputy, Jarrod Bleijie who, I am told, has enlisted his former director-general of justice, John Sosso (now an Administrative Appeals Tribunal member) to help plan a transition to government.

Other names that figure in these calculations include the highly regarded former D-G and Public Service Commissioner and current CEO of Redlands Council, Andrew Chesterman (who is also considered prime to become CEO of Brisbane City Council after the departure of Colin Jensen). There is also discussion of Greg Chemello who was appointed from senior public service roles to not just run but to be the Ipswich City Council when it was sacked six years ago. Chemello then went on to be CEO of Moreton Council.

These are all big organisations with challenges that match or exceed most state agencies. And don’t overlook Jensen who has worked at senior levels for both Labor and LNP administrations. Oddly, given the number of female recruits to be political candidates, no one is mentioning women in these considerations.

Within government, current D-Gs Jamie Merrick, Bob Gee, Chris Sarra, Graeme Bolton, Linda Dobe and Police Commissioner Steve Gollschewski are seen as stable and neutral hands.

This is not to say others aren’t but the rarity of conservative governments in Queensland since 1989 means there is a paucity of ready senior executives aligned to a new government’s way of thinking. This should not matter, as Peter Coaldrake observed in his integrity report two years ago. Politics and policy direction is the job of ministers; administration and development of policy options should sit with their departments.

There is also a view that the Crisafulli team is not doing enough to manage its transition to government. My inquiries suggest there is something to this but there is little reason to doubt Crisafulli’s personal commitment to getting in place a public service with leadership that can be respected for its capability and political neutrality.

The best transition to government in my 40 years of reporting and editing in Queensland was the Goss transition in 1989 and that was engineered by Goss’s own discipline supported by the fervour of Kevin Rudd as chief of staff and machine-like dedication of Glyn Davis and Peter Coaldrake. Even so, it saw most senior public servants lose their jobs and then an electoral turn against the government by the public service after just two terms.

Crisafulli’s declared support to move steadily (and not trash public service support) may be helped by events. It’s easy to see a scenario where the government changes at the ballot box in October, it takes another month or so to formally put in place the machinery of government and open a new parliament and then the promised 100-day reviews of the signature issues – juvenile crime and Olympics venues.

Which takes us into February, time enough to prioritise, budget and figure out who’s in and who’s out.