Come hell or high water, One Nation’s determined to have its say in October

The only thing certain about October’s state election is that the ALP will lose a lot of skin, regardless of where it goes, writes Greg Hallam.

Jun 26, 2024, updated Jun 26, 2024
Pauline Hanson's has lost a $250,000 defamation case for claiming a former colleague had sexually assaulted a staff member. (Photo: AAP)

Pauline Hanson's has lost a $250,000 defamation case for claiming a former colleague had sexually assaulted a staff member. (Photo: AAP)

One Nation’s Implacable Opposition to a State 75% Greenhouse Emissions target and pro-Nuclear Energy stance most probably will win them seats in the October State election .

Don’t take it for granted that Labor’s almost certain seat losses in the Queensland regional seats will automatically go to the LNP. They may well fall to One Nation, the Katters , and/or hard right wing independents.

Back in April Pauline Hanson said she was opposed to LNP Opposition Leader David Crisafulli’s matching of Labor’s 75% greenhouse emissions by 2035 reduction target. Then last Friday she said Crisafulli had “dug his own political grave” by opposing Peter Dutton’s Nuclear Energy Plan. Game on.

Nuances are not part of politics outside the South- East corner of the state. Politics in the region is binary, it’s black or white. You either believe in, or reject, the existence of climate change , and all that comes with it.

It’s a perfect issue for One Nation to run on as its a widely held belief in regional communities and lets Hanson oppose the ALP and LNP.

Energy prices and greenhouse gas reduction targets will be the alt right’s sole focus come the state election plan, as it encapsulates everything their supporters believe. It’s the perfect “ outsiders” issue.

Crisafulli has the dilemma of having to straddle the divide between the region’s energy prices chagrin and the more progressive SEQ politics, be it centre left or right.

By nature Crisafulli is centre right and an economic liberal, not a hard line conservative. He certainly gets regional Queensland, having spent three quarters of his life living in Ingham and Townsville, indeed as the Member for Mundingburra , before moving to the Gold Coast.

To date he has shown no signs of changing his stance of backing 75% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2035 target and his anti- nuclear stance.

He is already coming under heavy pressure from the Federal LNP , with Colin Boyce, Member for Flynn, crudely and misogynistically telling Crisafulli “ to put on his big girl pants”.

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It’s noteworthy that Boyce was formerly a state LNP MP. This will be a test of character and policy resolve for David Crisafulli as the state and federal election cycles intersect.

I’ve previously opined that, based on the March council election results the mood in the regions favours One Nation, the Katters and right wing independents.

They will make inroads, indeed collectively their numbers could double to eight seats in the regions. When you consider the Greens or Teal-like independents could take seats off Labor in SEQ , then it will be a very different parliament.

Its’ not impossible that the Greens, One Nation, Katter , and independents could hold up to a dozen seats in the 93 seat Queensland Legislative Chamber.

Labor will lose a swag of seats come October, but which column they rest in will determine whether the LNP has a workable majority, or if it’s a hung parliament.

Expect Labor to run hard in SEQ on that potential scenario attempting to scare voters with political instability and right wing demagoguery the theme.


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