Four years is a long time in politics, but cracks will widen even further in the weeks ahead
Queensland four years on from the last state election is a much changed place. Drilling down on the numbers shows seismic divides in our society, writes Greg Hallam.
Noosa is reacting to over-tourism and over-population pressures (file photo)
A detailed review of published statistics shows just how different the Sunshine State has become since 2020. For starters, there are 400,000 more of us.
The rate of change is the main thing that makes Queensland both unpredictable for political parties and fascinating for political nerds. It’s just that we’re different north of the border.
Today the Queensland population number is 5.586 million, up from 5.165 in 2020.That’s our biggest growth spurt in a very long time.
We are spending less time in the office and more time working from home, and consequently less in the car, or on public transport . Moreover, we are reconnecting to our local suburb and community.
There’s also been a notable shift to online shopping, and the gig economy has exploded over the past four years.
The temperature has continued to rise and Queensland has broken weather record after record.
Natural Disasters have become the rule, rather than the previous exception.The Queensland Reconstruction Authority’s current $10b works program gives testament to that change.
The ASX increased by in excess of 30% over the past four years, noting the negative return in 2022. Business, the building sector aside, has been extremely profitable.
Oxfam found that Australia’s biggest companies made $100 billion during the Covid crises and subsequent supply chain dislocation due to the Ukraine War.
The RBA cash rate was one quarter of one percent in October 2020 and stands at 4.3% today.
In October 2020 our state’s unemployment rate was 6.9% , today it’s 4.3%.
According to Core Logic the current median house price in Brisbane is $843,231, 19.6% higher than the 2020 comparable figure, and the second highest in the nation after Sydney.
Regional house prices have similarly boomed, realestate.com commenting that those increases ranged from 10% (Gladstone ) to 18% (Townsville) over the past four years.
Household incomes are a different story; it’s far more modest, grim even. Indeed, much is made by economists of the current per capita recession.
The Guardian’s Greg Jericho recently commented that “it’s worth remembering that in the past two years the share of household income spent on mortgage repayments has risen by the same amount as it did in the five years of the mining boom, and by more than in the run up to the 1990s recession“.
Whereas Michael Read in the AFR belled the cat, producing charts that showed that over the past two years Australia (read Queensland) had suffered the largest decline in household purchasing power in the OECD. Ouch.
Hence the struggle street conundrum – positive signs on a number of fronts, as I’ve laid out, but a real daily grind for two thirds of us (ie welfare recipients, gig economy employees, mortgagees and renters, or some combination of all of the above.
The Federal and State Governments have thrown a poultice of money, billions upon billions of dollars on tax cuts and cost of living payments. The success (both economic and political) of those strategies is yet to materialise, granted they only commenced in the new financial year.
But dig deeper and it’s much more complicated – 30% of us own our homes or units ie debt free) and are largely self funded retirees.While another 35 % of the population are mortgaged property owners, and the balance of our state’s population, another 35%, are renters. We are far from homogeneous.
The one set of figures I’ve not provided is crime stats, because that would require a lengthy treatise all of its own. That and I’m an economist, not a crime guru. Suffice to say that crime, or the fear of crime is the dominant community concern, and will be pivotal in the outcome of the October 26 state poll.
Ironically crime concerns are greatest in the over 55 population, and in particular, those whose net worth has benefited very significantly from the booming property and stock markets over the past four years.
There are many Queenslands out there, not just defined by the traditional geography but also by the varying demographics.
I’ll be keeping a keen eye during the election campaign on how the major parties target the different cohorts and how thinly they can slice and dice the electorate with targeted messaging in pursuit of votes where the most need them.