So is David Crisafulli, who the polls indicate will lead a conservative government into power unless the public mood shifts dramatically before the last Saturday in October.

Business factors a change into its thinking and so does the public service where policies dramatically affected by a change of government have stalled.

It’s hard, for instance, to discern any activity on turning the Queensland Athletics Stadium in suburban Nathan into an Olympics venue, a decision which will be overturned by an LNP Government.

Similarly, it’s hard to note any activity on the massive Pioneer-Burdekin hydro scheme which is vital to current planning to reduce energy emissions by 2030. David Crisafulli has already buried the scheme.

What we can expect over coming weeks will be competing narratives designed to unchain undecided voters.

The clincher is crime. Crisafulli has made it his calling card, particularly singling out problems caused by youth crime. His billboard solution is for tougher sentencing, described as Adult Crime, Adult Time.

Labor has given up countering that crime is overblown as an issue and, instead, has to prove it is doing more to make citizens safe or match Crisafulli’s rhetoric. My opinion: calling in the police leadership and publicly challenging them to catch more criminals would be a good start.

Cost of living is also strong. Rebates to subsidise electricity bills have been popular and so have the 50 cent public transport fares. But Crisafulli has taken away any advantage this gives the government by promising to match the extension it is offering if re-elected.

Handouts already delivered, in my view, will have little impact on voting decisions. Watch out instead for some new handouts on offer post-election. Back-to-school subsidies are tried and tested vote winners but don’t rule out concessions on other services inflated by government taxes and charges (insurance for instance).

That’s the logical side of the campaign. Then there are the far more emotional levers.

Steven Miles, the LNP would have us believe, leads a tired government out of energy and ideas and ashamed of a record it’s not using to win re-election. David Crisafulli, Labor would have us believe, is a hangover from the unpopular Newman Government who is trying to sneak into office with no agenda for the state.

Labor will play hard on both Crisafulli’s record in government and his brief record in business where he was a short-term director of a company later found to have traded illiquid. (If you trawl last week’s Hansard, you will find the liquidator’s report to the Australian Securities Commission tabled. It’s benign for Crisafulli but enough to muddy the waters around him in coming weeks.)

The LNP will play hard on the machinations and backroom dealings that landed Steven Miles in the Premier’s office in events that have never been adequately explained. You can also expect the LNP to produce multiple cases of failure in the state’s hospitals, schools, highways and energy systems, all the responsibility of government but, by election day, the personal responsibility of the Premier.

If both sides were starting equal, you would have to say the LNP wins on both the logical and emotional contests. They aren’t starting equal which suggests there is almost no prospect of Labor being returned.

The rise of the Greens in Brisbane and the attraction of the Katter Australia Party in north Queensland could see enough seats chipped away from either party to require minority government. But it is certain that the Greens, in that circumstance, would support Labor and KAP would support the LNP.

I love election campaigns (this one is the 20th since I first started paying attention in Year 4) and there’s something special about campaigns in Queensland where continual population growth adds some unpredictability to the stark divide between city and regional interests.

With six weeks to go, both leaders still have plenty of cards to play to determine who will lead this state into the second quarter of the century.