There are a lot of signs , beyond published polling , that leads informed observers to believe that the LNP will form the next Queensland Government, a lay down misere, even .

The corporate bookmakers have the LNP at $1.16 to win – what’s known as tomato sauce odds in horse racing parlance.

The fact the Opposition Leader is apparently under no pressure to unveil more of his alternative government’s policy agenda is another telling sign.

David Crisafulli steadfastly wants to keep the attention on the Labor State Government and has done so. The location of the alternative government’s Brisbane Olympic Stadium, is exhibit number one in that case. It’s actually been quite remarkable that he has kept his agenda under wraps for so long – a huge political advantage.

The leaders’ travel treks are always a good sign of where the action is, with the major provincial cities along Queensland’s coastline currently very popular destinations .

As far as holding seats go, its highwater for the Labor Party in Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone, Bundaberg and Maryborough, having secured all those seats over the last decade .

They have many seats at stake in and around those regional centres – 12 all up. The government relies on these seats to offset the huge hold on seats the LNP have on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

Expect over the next 80 days to see a welter of smaller but high profile project announcements by the Miles Government in those seats in a last ditched attempt to save a few regional plums.

They stashed away funds in the last state budget for that very purpose .
A lot of the regional seat campaigns are largely invisible to us in the South- east corner of the state.

We are largely oblivious to those machinations. Especially the efforts of One Nation, the Katters and right wing independents . But as I have repeatedly said, circumstances favour them and they will poll very well.

If Labor’s doomsayers are right and a 20-plus seat loss is on the cards, then the host of seats Labor hold in around the Pine Rivers, Caboolture, Ipswich and Logan will be well and truly in the mix .

It’s those seats that are currently home to the majority of ALPs Cabinet members, and more tellingly, their future leadership. If those seats change hands then Labor is facing a minimum eight years in opposition .

When you see the parties switch focus to this battleground and saving the furniture, the fat lady is close to singing.

Then of course, there are the Brisbane proper seats where again, Labor holds sway. It’s a different dynamic with the Greens posing the greater threat to the ALP. Again, expect changes on election night.

As someone who enjoys an occasional flutter, my focus will be on the size of LNP victory, the number of seats held by the minor parties and independents in the north, and individual seat results.

The old political truism that when the tide turns, few survive the outgoing current. That said, I’m still of the belief that the October 26 surprise might be the size of the cross bench.

This competition will start as soon as the Olympics and Para Olympics conclude .

You wouldn’t be dead for quids.