How Queensland will extract itself from the shambles of the 2020s
We are not even five years into the decade and already the 2020s have been a debacle. We know how we got here, but how are we going to get out of this mess?
The floods hit hard in south east Queensland and Lismore. IAAP photo).
The 2020s have changed us in lots of different ways, but there were a truckload of things no one ever saw coming, like the vast number of people who can’t afford to put food on the table or pay rent, or the increase in the number of people sleeping in cars.
Everything from who gets a job, where they work or live and what they can afford is in a state of flux as governments grapple with – and often fumble -substantive policy areas.
While much of the media will tell you how bad things are, there are signs the nation is pulling itself out of the mess. In some cases, Queensland is ahead of the rest or at least better off than many.
Late last year, as southerners abandoned their homes and moved north, the Queensland workforce topped 3 million and continues to climb. An extra 120,000 Queensland jobs have been created compared with June last year. That alone is an achievement given the flood of new residents.
Employment is a standout for Queensland. Significant swings have occurred in the job market as technology has taken over jobs considered dangerous, dirty or dull, which have been the domain of men. That has occurred at the same time as sectors that have been traditionally female dominated, like health care, have boomed.
In several areas around the state, like Wide Bay, the number of employed women is significantly higher than employed men in a major sign of social change.
Mackay and Wide Bay have also seen a drop in their labour force (working or looking for work), while Moreton Bay North and the Sunshine Coast have seen a dramatic rises in the number of workers as people look for affordability, according to ABS data.
Inflation in Brisbane has fallen significantly. This time last year it was at 6.5 per cent and is now down to 3.4 per cent, marginally better than Sydney and Melbourne and much better than Adelaide and Perth.
Queensland’s unemployment rate of 3.9 per cent is on a par with NSW and South Australia, better than Victoria and slightly behind WA and Tasmania.
If you own a house now in Brisbane, you’re possibly a millionaire, as ridiculous as that sounds, and the only way many people in the 30s will join those ranks is if they are lucky enough to inherit their parent’s house. Suddenly, a generation we thought was too entitled is not entitled enough.
Housing has been a huge issue for the State and Federal governments. The 2022 floods hit as interest rates rose. It added to the shortage of houses stemming from pandemic issues, under spending in social housing and increased migration which all culminated in a crisis that was like a gordian knot to unravel.
That could be turning around. Immigration is tailing off, Westpac has tipped a rate cut later this year and there could be another two next year, depending on who you believe. Queensland building approvals are also turning, but from very low levels.
Conus economist Pete Faulkner said that for the first time since February 2023 residential approvals in Queensland are up on a year-on-year basis (+3.9 per cent) and had now risen for each of the past four months. In June, they were up by a particularly strong 14.6 per cent in Queensland while NSW and Victoria had double digit falls.
CoreLogic’s rental index revealed rents fell in Brisbane in July. Unit rents have lost 8 per cent in the annual growth rate.
“The easing in rental growth aligns with the peak in net overseas migration in the first quarter of 2023. The large majority of overseas migrants, mostly students, arrive in Australia on temporary visas,’’ it said.
“Growth in house rents is also easing in most cities, but again this is from a high base with the annual pace of rental growth remaining well above pre-COVID averages in most cities.’’
CommSec said housing finance was one of the highlights of the Queensland economy, which, it must be pointed out, ranked fifth in the nation on the 10-year comparison of economic issues it uses in its State of the States report. Queensland’s relative weakness over that period was economic growth.
However, it said Queensland and WA had the strongest economic momentum of all the states.
CoreLogic’s home value index shows Brisbane dwelling prices are up 16 per cent over the past 12 months and the Real Estate Institute of Queensland said median house prices in Brisbane grew 3.1 per cent in the last quarter to a $1.16 million and units rose 4.31 per cent to $605,000.
Across Queensland, the median price growth of units outpaced that of houses over the quarter, as well as over the year. Units grew 5.09 per cent to $578,000 and houses rose 2.07 per cent to $735,000 over the March quarter. Annually, units lifted 10.2 per cent and houses are up 8.46 per cent.
Climate change didn’t start in 2020, but its impact has increased since then and that is changing the economy. The horrific fires of 2019 and the floods of 2022 have continue to have a very real impact on the economy by forcing changes in agriculture.
Insurance has skyrocketed in some parts of Queensland where disasters are just another day and some farmers in the food bowl of the Lockyer Valley have said that they have been forced them to swap food crops for something like cotton.
That could have a profound affect if it continues.
The move to renewables has not been as accepted as many would have thought. In some areas of north Queensland there were clashes with environmentalists complaining about vegetation destruction while in other areas brawls over land use have arisen.
We won the rights to 2032 Olympics which was good at the start, but buyer’s remorse kicked in when politicians started playing with it and proved nothing is above point-scoring.
The Federal Government turned our diplomatic relations with China into a bin fire and until recently our major exports including coal, tourism and beef were banned. On the plus side, exporters were forced to diversify and the massive expansion of India’s steel industry could keep Queensland’s coal sector strong for many more years.
The retail sector became a disaster zone. Increases in turnover barely meet inflation and the sector is now surviving on sales to keep alive. Quarterly retail sales in Qld -0.1. WA is better at +0.9 but other states worse. Remarkably, real retail sales per capita have now recorded a cumulative 5.8% decline from the high in late 2021.
As we head towards 2025, the state government that appeared unbeatable during the pandemic frayed at the edges and all the things swept under the carpet suddenly became big, unmissable lumps that it tripped over.
Rents remain a massive issue until the supply of houses catches up with demand.
Business investment in Queensland is growing at 5.5 per cent, according to Treasury. The domestic state economy is running 2.8 per cent and employment growth is relatively weak at 0.4 per cent.
The Budget forecasts economic growth in Queensland of 3 per cent this financial year.
Office vacancy in the CBD, which is a useful barometer of the economy, is now at its lowest level since 2013 after huge oversupply following Covid. A lot of that is because of increased demand but a substantial slice of office space was withdrawn from the market as owners carry out refurbishment and renovations.
The Property Council says Brisbane and southeast Queensland have the lowest office vacancy rates in the country.